The course focuses on the analytic description of the most modern statistical (and not statistical) approaches, methods and forecasting techniques. It is designed for students to gain knowledge and experience in the methodology and application of the forecasting techniques.
Furthermore, students use information systems for business forecasting to get accustomed to business practices and business tools on the new technologies. The final goal is that students obtain the knowledge but also the practical experience on the forecasting techniques.
Subject of study
The course includes mathematical models, forecasting techniques, time series, various categories of forecasting methods, evaluation of the forecasting accuracy and many fields of actual application. Moreover, it presents the analysis of time series, fundamental statistical concepts, qualitative characteristics of time series and methodological tools for time series analysis.Emphasis is placed on the application of the methods, the comparative evaluation of the different techniques and the assimilation of basic tools (that are necessary in the forecasting process). Students should incorporate the expertise and learn about the forecasting procedures in an advance information system for business forecasts, called PYTHIA. This system is designed and developed by the Forecasting and Strategy Unit.
The students would be able, after the end of the lectures and the conduct of the exercises, to:
• Have a complete knowledge of the methodology and application of forecasting techniques
• Use information systems to implement the forecasting procedures
• Analyze and adjust the original data
• Know the main methods and techniques of forecasting
• Distinguish the qualitative characteristics of time series
• Calculate the moving average of the data
• Apply the forecasting methods and analyze the necessary data for the design. Forecast and design (the role of the forecast for planning and decision making)
• Know the capabilities and the use of the forecasting techniques